Moscow, 20.10.2011 In the anticipation of his visit to Moscow to participate in the International Scientific Conference “Problems of Adaptation to Climate Change” the Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Dr. Rajendra Pachauri agreed to answer a few questions to our Newletter. The theme of the interview - preparation of the new 5th IPCC Assessment Report.

(Newsletter "Climate Change", #28, Sep.-Oct. 2011)

1) Dear Dr. Pachauri, thank you very much for your kind consent to answer our questions. Could you, please, inform our readers about the preparation of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5)? Are there any differences in the procedure of its preparation, structure and authors’ team in comparison with the previous report (AR4)?

The preparations for IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) are well in hand, and we are making substantial progress. The report is being prepared in keeping with established IPCC procedures. However, as you may be aware the IPCC requested the InterAcademy Council (IAC) to carry out a review of its processes and procedures, and the report that IAC submitted after the review has been considered by the Panel as a whole and is being implemented effectively. To that extent, there is some modification and refinement in the procedures being followed, even though the basic thrust of our approach, which the IAC itself found as robust remains largely intact. As far as the authors for this report are concerned, we were very pleased to see an overwhelming response in the nominations that we sought. There was a total of about 3000 nominations that were received from which 831 Lead Authors and Review Editors were selected for the AR5.

2) It is known that IPCC experts, besides the preparation of Assessment reports, are involved in the preparation of special reports devoted to various climate change issues. These include the reports on Influence of Climate Change on Water Resources, Carbon Capture and Storage, Ozone Layer and Climate Change and others. What special reports are going to be published in the near future?

There are two special reports that were taken in hand for completion during the AR5 cycle. The first of these special reports on ‘Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation’ was completed and released in May 2011. The second one dealing with ‘Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation’ will be completed and is expected to be released later in November, 2011. Both these reports were prepared in response to a demand from the Panel, which reflects a need for new knowledge on the subjects covered by the two special reports.

3) Your present visit to Russia is related to your participation in the International Scientific Conference “Problems of Adaptation to Climate Change”. What major adaptation issues will be discussed in the AR5?

Adaptation issues will be discussed in detail in the AR5, and these have been very clearly listed in the outline of the AR5. For instance, the topics to be covered under adaptation deal with adaptation needs and options; adaptation planning and implementation; adaptation opportunities constraints and limits; as well as the economics of adaptation. It must also be mentioned that the Working Group - II’s contribution to the AR5 will be in two parts, the first dealing with essentially global issues and the second providing details at the regional level. To that extent it is expected that adaptation measures will also have greater regional information and assessment in the AR5.

4) Soon after the PACC-2011 representatives of the majority of countries of the world will meet at the annual UNFCCC International Conference in Durban, South Africa. Despite the recent progress achieved since the previous the UNFCCC Conference in Cancun (Mexico) there are still many significant differences in views of developed and developing countries on the preparation of a new international agreement on the GHG emission cuts that is to substitute the Kyoto Protocol. What major results of the AR5 should be taken into consideration first by decision makers from developed and developing countries?

As far as the Conference of the Parties (CoP) to be held in Durban is concerned, there is enough substance in the findings of the AR4, on the basis of which action can be taken. The AR5 will become available in the period 2013-2014, and would, therefore, be very useful in carrying out a review which the CoP is expected to complete by mid 2015. However, as far as the CoP in Durban is concerned, not only does it have the benefit of scientific assessment from the AR4 but also results of the two special reports mentioned above.

5) It is always a difficult task to ensure that scientific findings are understandable enough to decision makers and the society. The task is especially difficult in the case of climate change and its impacts on different sectors of economy, environment, biodiversity, human health, etc. How do IPCC experts resolve this task at present and what are they going to do it in the near future?

Scientific results of IPCC reports are required to be disseminated on a large scale. The work of the Panel is required to be policy relevant but not policy prescriptive. It is for this reason that the summary for policymakers in each IPCC report is written in simple language which a non-specialist can understand. The assessment of climate change and its impacts on different economies etc. would deal with not only by looking at the impacts on specific sectors but also different regions of the world. The AR5 is therefore attempting to use all the literature available for providing sectoral as well as regional detail as required.

Dear Dr. Pachauri, thank you very much for your answers!

More:

- IPCC Special Report "Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)"(2011)

Посмотреть: http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report

- Интервью с заместителем директора ИГКЭ Росгидромета и РАН, членом бюро МГЭИК, профессором С.М.Семеновым о деятельности МГЭИК, подготовке 5-го Оценочного доклада и участии в ней российских авторов, а также итогах прошедшей в октябре 2010 г. в Южной Корее сессии МГЭИК - см. бюллетень «Изменение климата» № 20, ноябрь-декабрь 2010 г.

Ссылка:http://www.global-climate-сhange.ru/downl/byulletenyo/izmenenie_klimata_n20_nov_dec_2010.pdf (File not exist!)

- О российских ученых-климатологах, вошедших в состав коллектива экспертов, сформированного МГЭИК для работы над 5-м Оценочным докладом - см. бюллетень «Изменение климата» № 15, июнь 2010 г. (стр.10)

Ссылка: http://www.global-climate-change.ru/index.php?option=com_dlstat4joomla&task=download&file=http://www.global-climate-change.ru/downl/byulletenyo/izmenenie_klimata_n6_june10.pdf [скачано/download :1935 ]

- Сайт МГЭИК: http://www.ipcc.ch